Peak Oil again but this time is the German Military

German Military Braces for Scarcity After ‘Peak Oil’

By JOHN COLLINS RUDOLF

A study by a German military think tank leaked to the Internet warns of the potential for a dire global economic crisis in as little as 15 years as a result of a peak and an irreversible decline in world oil supplies.

Associated Press

The study was produced by the Future Analysis department of the Bundeswehr Transformation Center, a branch of the German military. It was leaked in August, and its authenticity was confirmed last week by the German newspaper Der Spiegel.

The study states that there is “some probability that peak oil will occur around the year 2010 and that the impact on security is expected to be felt 15 to 30 years later.”

The concept of “peak oil” is a controversial one, as it signifies the point at which global oil production reaches its maximum level and then enters a permanent decline. As oil is a finite resource, most energy experts consider the eventual peak and decline of world oil production to be an inevitable reality.

But the timing of this zenith — whether in the near term, or some distant future — is a subject of fierce debate.

Many prominent national and intergovernmental energy agencies, including the International Energy Agency, maintain that oil reserves are sufficient to meet demand until at least 2030.

The German military study, which was analyzed and partly translated into English by Der Spiegel, declares that once peak oil begins in earnest, economies around the globe — including Germany’s — will probably struggle with price shocks as a result of higher transportation costs, and “shortages of vital goods could arise.”

“In the medium term the global economic system and every market-oriented national economy would collapse,” the study continues.

The lead author of the study, Lt. Col. Thomas Will, declined to comment to Der Speigel, as did the German Defense Ministry. According to Der Speigel, the report was in draft form and not intended for release to the public and had yet to be vetted by the German military leadership and other government agencies.

The German military is not alone in its concern over the implications of peak oil. According to an Aug. 22 report by Britain’s Guardian newspaper, British government ministries have been privately canvassing opinions from the energy industry and scientists on peak oil, while publicly dismissing fears of an imminent oil shortage as alarmist.

Fueling suspicion, the British government has rebuffed news media requests to turn over policy documents related to peak oil.